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Coronavirus UK: Indoor mixing could be reintroduced sooner, SAGE suggests

Covid vaccines being used in Britain are working ‘spectacularly well’ at slashing hospital admissions in Scotland and preventing even mild infections among health workers in England, the first real-world data revealed today. 

Public Health England and top researchers in Scotland have published two separate papers linking up coronavirus data with vaccinations, revealing that jabs are both bringing down hospital admissions and preventing infections.

A single dose of Pfizer’s vaccine can cut the risk of testing positive with or without symptoms by 70 per cent, PHE found, rising to 85 per cent after a second jab. 

And a dose of either Pfizer and AstraZeneca reduces someone’s risk of developing Covid severe enough to need hospital treatment by between 85 and 94 per cent, according to a separate study in Scotland.

PHE’s study showed that the Pfizer jab gave 57 per cent protection against Covid among over-80s from dose one, and this appeared to rise to 88 per cent after a second jab, although this data is preliminary. There was not enough information to make the same analysis for Oxford/AstraZeneca’s jab. 

Experts dubbed the findings ‘very encouraging’, ‘a good sign’ and ‘reasons to be optimistic’ – they come as Boris Johnson today outlines Britain’s route out of lockdown, with schools expected to properly reopen in England from March 8, with further measures being loosed in the following weeks.

Government advisers on SAGE are still cautious, warning that 94 per cent protection ‘is not 100 per cent’ and that millions will still be at risk of Covid even with high vaccine coverage. 

Out of 23,324 health workers in the PHE study, 89 per cent were vaccinated by February 5. There were 977 cases of coronavirus recorded in people before they were vaccinated, compared to 71 among people who were three weeks post-vaccination, PHE’s Dr Susan Hopkins said today

Public Health England today published the results of its SIREN study, which looks at how coronavirus is affecting medical workers across the country.

Medical staff have been among the top priority groups for vaccinations and also at a high risk of catching the virus during the second wave, so they are an extremely useful group for studying the effectiveness of the jabs.

Out of 23,324 health workers in the study, 89 per cent were vaccinated by February 5. There were 977 cases of coronavirus recorded in people before they were vaccinated, compared to 71 among people who were three weeks post-vaccination, PHE’s Dr Susan Hopkins said today. A further nine tested positive within a week of the jab.

The PHE epidemiologist told a news briefing: ‘Overall we’re seeing a really strong effect at reducing any infection.’

The study summarised the protection against coronavirus infection of any severity to be ‘at least 70 per cent 21 days after the first dose, increasing to at least 85 per cent 7 days after the second dose.’

Preventing people from testing positive for the disease almost certainly means that the vaccines will stop transmission, which is a boon for the Government’s plans to end lockdown this summer.

Clinical trials had not studied this before, instead looking only at symptomatic infection, hospital admissions or deaths. These are most important for preventing people from dying, but stopping the virus spreading is crucial for returning life to normal.

PHE also published separate data from a group of 148,052 over-70s showing that the vaccine protects elderly people (over-80) against Covid-19 symptoms by a factor of 57 per cent three weeks after the first dose. This is then boosted to more than 85 per cent after the second dose.

In all age groups people’s risk of getting such bad Covid that they need to go to hospital drops by over 75 per cent after a single dose of Pfizer’s jab, PHE said. For over-80s there is a 40 per cent reduction.

In a ray of hope for Britain's lockdown-easing plans, results showed the jabs slashed the risk of hospital admission from Covid by up to 85 and 94 per cent, respectively, four weeks after the first dose. The graph above shows how the vaccine worked in different age groups

In a ray of hope for Britain’s lockdown-easing plans, results showed the jabs slashed the risk of hospital admission from Covid by up to 85 and 94 per cent, respectively, four weeks after the first dose. The graph above shows how the vaccine worked in different age groups

The Scottish study showed that both vaccines offer a high level of protection against being hospitalised with Covid from just two weeks after a single dose, with the protection kicking in only a week after injection. There were not enough data to compare the two, the scientists said, although AstraZeneca's appears to work better in the early stages

The Scottish study showed that both vaccines offer a high level of protection against being hospitalised with Covid from just two weeks after a single dose, with the protection kicking in only a week after injection. There were not enough data to compare the two, the scientists said, although AstraZeneca’s appears to work better in the early stages

For illustrative purposes, an 85 per cent reduction in the risk of hospitalisation could have meant that, if the UK's entire adult population were vaccinated before the second wave, the 4,576 new coronavirus-related hospital admissions at the peak on January 12 could have been just 690 – 15 per cent of the total

For illustrative purposes, an 85 per cent reduction in the risk of hospitalisation could have meant that, if the UK’s entire adult population were vaccinated before the second wave, the 4,576 new coronavirus-related hospital admissions at the peak on January 12 could have been just 690 – 15 per cent of the total

And the risk of death among people older than 80 is lowered by 56 per cent from two weeks after a first dose of Pfizer’s vaccine.  

Dr Mary Ramsay, the head of immunisation at PHE said: ‘This is strong evidence that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is stopping people from getting infected, while also protecting cases against hospitalisation and death.’

She said people should be ‘very encouraged’ by the data but added: ‘Protection is not complete, and we don’t yet know how much these vaccines will reduce the risk of you passing Covid-19 onto others. 

‘So even if you have been vaccinated, it is really important that you continue to act like you have the virus, practice good hand hygiene and stay at home.’

PHE’s study comes after research published this morning by Public Health Scotland, the University of Edinburgh and the University of Strathclyde, among others, that showed both Pfizer and Oxford’s jabs are working north of the border.

Using real-world data from members of the public – the first of its kind in the UK – the researchers found that the vaccines led to an 85-94 per cent reduction in hospital admission from four weeks after the first dose.

That study was based on an analysis of data from the 1.14million doses dished out between December 8 and February 15. 

It linked up people’s vaccination records to reports of hospital admissions for Covid-19 to see whether people who had had a jab were coming less often than those who hadn’t. 

It showed that among those aged 80 and over — one of the highest risk groups — vaccination was associated with an 81 per cent reduction in hospitalisation risk in the fourth week, when the results for both vaccines were combined. 

Protection increased over time for both vaccines, from 38 per cent (Pfizer) and 70 per cent (Oxford) after one week – before the jab is expected to work at all – to 85 per cent (Pfizer) and 94 per cent (Oxford) after four weeks. 

Professor Aziz Sheikh, the study director from the University of Edinburgh, said: ‘Overall we are very, very impressed with the both the vaccines. When you move beyond the trial settings you never know what the results are going to be.

‘Out in the field… both of these are working spectacularly well.’ 


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